Is there hope?

In all the posts thus far in this blog, we have sought a better understanding of the links between climate change and natural disasters and can conclude that in most cases, there are possibilities that recent anthropogenic climate change can have significant impacts on the future trends of natural disasters. Indeed, large uncertainties are still involved in these studies but as Bill McGuire asserts, human’s climate-changing activities seem to be loading the dice in favour of more natural disasters. In face of this imminent doom and gloom, is there still hope for future societies?

Looking in the past, previous studies have revealed that climate change might have played a part in the demise of some civilisations. Hodell et al. (1995) and Haug et al. (2003) found evidence that show that the collapse of the Maya Civilisation coincided with an extended period of aridity and abrupt drought events between 750-900A.D. Cullen and deMenacol (2000) showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation has an influence on the streamflow of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers and that cooling of the North Atlantic occurred just before the fall of the Akkadian empire. Over in East Asia, Zhang et al. (2005) suggested that most of the dynastic transitions and nationwide social unrests and 70-80% of war peaks in China occurred in cold phases. They argue that colder temperatures limited food productivity of the land and thus caused deficiency of livelihood resources across society. All of these studies have been careful to avoid the notion of environmental determinism. They are not trying to show that climate is a determinant of societal progress but that environmental conditions can impose limits on societies through things like food production and land use (Marshall 2012).   

Map showing how climate change might have been associated with the fall of some civilizations across the world in the past. Source: New Scientist

That said, however, climate change is only one factor, out of many others, that can alter the risks of natural disasters (Mercer 2010). Disaster risk can still be exacerbated even without climate change due to poor land use planning and population increase. For example, rapid urbanisation has overwhelmed the infrastructure of Manila, causing many of the poor to settle at the city periphery and other landslide-prone areas. It has been estimated that almost three million people are living in makeshift quarters in unstable areas. Meanwhile, during the Szechuan Earthquake in 2008, the poor construction quality of buildings, known as tofu buildings, were blamed for the high death tolls. In Florida, people continue to flock towards

Tofu buildings that collapsed during the Szechuan
earthquake in 2008. Credits: AFP

the coast, with more than 90% of its residents living on the coast despite the mounting threats of hurricanes and sea level rise by the end of the century. As such, the outcomes of extreme events are also dependent on the development choices of human societies. In the SREX report (IPCC 2012), the IPCC acknowledges that climate change is often viewed as a slow-onset, long-term problem and that adaptation strategies invariably require trade-offs to be made. Hence governments with short terms of office are often reluctant to invest in climate adaptation measures, since they might not produce any tangible results within their term of office. For many poor countries, the priority would often be to channel money into places that require them most urgently instead of building climate and disaster resilience. Therefore, what is needed over time is a high level of trust between the people and the government, a more long-term approach to planning, a willingness to experiment and innovate new ways to deal with climate change and disasters, flexibility in systems, engagement of civil society in planning and help given to poorer countries to build their resilience (IPCC 2012; Norris et al. 2008; Pearce 2003). Given that there are also still large uncertainties involved, governments need develop and prepare for different possible scenarios that could happen in the future.

Nonetheless over the years, there has been encouraging evidence from around the world to show that all hope is not lost with regards to natural disasters. Human societies have been able to bounce back up time and time again after being hit with natural disasters. It has been nine years since the Boxing Day Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. Survivors have been trying to rebuild their lives ever since including those on the island of Dhavaafuru in the Maldives, where infrastructure such as road and school are being built from scratch. Moreover, while there was a lack of early warning systems back in 2004, there is now an operating tsunami early warning system made up of a network of seismographic centres and tsunami-detection buoys in the region that can alert the public of a tsunami quickly. Likewise in the Mohak Sharif village in rural Pakistan, a new eco-village has been rebuilt after being devastated by floods back in 2011 through the combined efforts of its residents and the Heritage Foundation. Meanwhile, we have also seen cases where innovative solutions have been implemented to help develop the resilience of communities towards natural disasters. The Netherlands has been known to be consistently suffering from floods due to its low-lying location. However, they have actively been trying to build their resilience towards floods,

An artist's impression of the Room for the River
project. Credits:http://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl

with their latest plan to redesign their cities to make room for their river. Instead of building their dykes higher to restrict floodwaters from entering the city, they are  digging a new channel for the river and to move their dykes further inland so that there is more space for water to flow. All these have only been possible due to sheer will and effort by all members of the society.

Is there hope? I believe there is hope for the future but only if governments and societies are willing to commit themselves to climate adaptation and disaster resilience and reconcile both their short-term and long-term values and goals. It is hence a political choice that must be made and one that ought to be made soon so that there will be more time available to prepare for what is to come.